OT:Global Warming and Junk Science

[Nancy Palmquist]

Bill Campbell wrote:
> On Mon, Nov 19, 2007, John Esak wrote:
>>> Sctt ???
>> Must be that old comedy teletype group based out of Chicago....  :-)
>>
>> Incidentally, on an even less filePro-related topic, for those following the
>> global warming thing. We just got 8 to 10 inches of snow here in Hazleton,
>> PA (Eagle Rock)... maybe it's fixed???   :-)
>>
>> Just kidding...  just kidding... please no cards and letters.
>>
>> John
>>
>> Seriously, I *do* firmly believe in global warming and that it has been
>> active during the past 40 years. When we were kids November in Northern NJ
>> was *always* filled with many 1 and 2 foot snow storms.  These days, you're
>> lucky to get any snow even into December and January.  The thing is, I want
>> to believe that the causes for this global warming are just that glboabl,
>> meaning earth based, nature based, cyclical weathern patterns, etc. I'm not
>> convinced that man's various forays into all the things we do have *caused*
>> this trend in more heat less filling. We certainly have huge impact, I am
>> just one that still has an open mind as to the real causes.
> 
> Actually, the human impact is probably minimal compared to external
> factors, primarily the sun.
> 
> I just finished reading ``Unstoppable Global Warming: every 1,500 Years''
> by S. Fred Singer and Dennis T. Avery which goes into this in great detail.
> It has extensive references to real scientific studies, not political
> screeds and bad science as promoted by the IPCC and Al Gore.
> 
> The authors point out man inconvenient truths including:
> 
>    + The current warming is the most recent in hundreds of cooling and
>      warming cycles that occur every 1,500 years +- 500 years.
> 
>    + Frequently there are rapid changes in climate, on the order of a
>      decade or so.
> 
>    + Current temperatures are less than they were in the 1930s, and
>      temperatures in most of the Antartic are decreasing, not increasing.
> 
>    + Temperature and CO2 levels are related, with CO2 levels increasing
>      *AFTER* temperatures rise, lagging by about 800 years (this is evident
>      even in Gore's movie).
> 
>    + There are fewer storms, hurricanes, etc. during warming periods than
>      curing the cold periods,  Major storms are largely caused by
>      temperature differences between the poles and the equator, and the
>      temperature changes are minimal at the equator.  Historical records
>      show much higher storm activity during cooling periods, the most
>      recent being the Little Ice Age from about 1600 -> 1850 than they are
>      during the warmer periods.
> 
>    + Warmer periods are generally conducive to all forms of life with lower
>      rates of disease, better crops.  Far more people die due to cold than
>      heat, particularly since the advent of air conditioning.
> 
>    + Modern farming methods require far less land to feed people than so-
>      called ``Organic'' farming.
> 
> The authors point out that the primary advocates of human-caused global
> warming are (and I'm quoting):
> 
>    + Computer models that cannot explain past temperatures, let alone
>      accurately forecast future ones, and whose funding depnds on the
>      public's fear of radical warming.
> 
>    + Activists who oppose modern technology, abhor expanded human
>      populations, and expecially hate the low-cost energy that alleviates
>      human poverty and misery.  They say we must renounce attractive
>      lifestyles, give up yigh-yield farming, shorten millions of lives, and
>      put more pressure on Third World forests for fuelwood.
> 
>    + European politicans.
> 
>    + Jourhalists looking for scary headlines.
> 
>    + Various national and international bureaucracies and UN-appointed
>      members and staff of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
> 
> I am not an atmospheric scientist.  My degree is in Physics and Math from
> The Johns Hopkins University, and I do have a fair understanding of science
> and the scientific method.  Equally important, I have a good understanding
> of economics and politics, well summarized by Mencken:
> 
>      The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace
>      alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by an endless
>      series of hobgoblins.  -- H.L. Mencken, 1923
> 
> Bill
> 
Bill,

It would sure go a long way if normal people could get to an 
understanding of the forces at work without all the junk science that 
the media, politicians, etc. throw at us day in and day out.  The drival 
they push as science in the media is usually crap. A sound bite without 
all the information that really makes it helpful.  As you notice, even 
renown scientists are found on both sides of each argument/discussion, 
often being paid by the corporations that benefit from how the argument 
plays out.  A formula for developing some very bad science. All this 
filters into the text books that the schools use and further confuses 
the population.

I know our impact on the planet is much less than we imagine. The world 
has the ability to heal itself quite rapidly (in the real time line of 
events), we do more damage to the creatures than to the planet.  But 
even then it just shifts the populations as other fill in the gaps in 
the ecosystems.

I find this also very true in health issues where they like to push 
drugs, instead of total overall better health.  It seems you can never 
trust anything they say, which leads people to ignore it all.  Some 
better life style stuff has got to be actually right, but it gets lost 
in the rest of the clutter.

I think we really have trouble with this because the scientific training 
  we receive is rote and not critical thinking.  Memorize this and that, 
instead of understanding and thinking for yourself.  A very difficult 
thing to teach, but important to the development of scientifically 
minded citizens.  People better able to make decisions that affect our 
environment and how we interact with it.

Well - Sorry all.  I got off on a bender with this one.

Nancy


-- 
Nancy Palmquist 		MOS & filePro Training Available
Virtual Software Systems	Web Based Training and Consulting	
PHONE: (412) 835-9417		   Web site:  http://www.vss3.com