Punditry, and how to make it pay :-) (was Re: moving from Sco to Linux)

[Jay R. Ashworth]

On Fri, Jul 23, 2004 at 05:44:45PM -0400, John Esak wrote:
> Subject: RE: moving from Sco to Linux
> > Because SCO is now a litigation company, not a software company?
> > I've added SCO to my close-of-business 2005 list.  Along with Microsoft.
> 
> 
> If Microsoft goes out of business in 2005, I will write you a check for
> $10,000 and bring it to you personally wherever you live. This is among the
> most... outlandish... things you have proposed... Perhaps, you think Exxon
> and GM will be leaving us shortly, also? :-) I've got more checks.

The exact, full prediction, which I've posted on my website several
times since 1999 is: "by close-of-business 2005, either Microsoft won't
be in anything like the same business they're in now, or they won't be
in business at all."

By "anything like", (hopefully) clearly, I mean "operating system
effective monopoly with a ridealong almost-monopoly market share in
office and browser software".  For my purposes, the measurable item is
unit shipments of software, since, clearly, they get an unfair
advantage over F/OSS if you measure it in terms of money.

If some combination of OS/X and Linux/BSD make it to 50% unit market
share by my deadline, I will consider myself to have been correct.

You may not.

Given those clarified parameters, is the check still on the table?  ;-)

Cheers,
-- jra
-- 
Jay R. Ashworth                                                jra at baylink.com
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	"You know: I'm a fan of photosynthesis as much as the next guy,
	but if God merely wanted us to smell the flowers, he wouldn't 
	have invented a 3GHz microprocessor and a 3D graphics board."
					-- Luke Girardi